Azad Irani - Mocambo: Do read this. Very impressive.
Modi's great 2000 Rupee Note Trick
(If you find this helpful and interesting, request you to please do share so that doubts of anybody around introduction of Rs. 2000 currency notes are assuaged)
Its about Modi's great Rs. 2000 Note Trick which Modi has played with such brilliant flair that it has stumped everybody (many of his supporters as well).
There is caveat to the below Analysis, which is, you need to read completely to understand it
As I'm writing this post, I know this will be a little long but should be interesting to the inquisitive, so please have patience.
To understand this trick, you must first understand the characteristics of a surgical strike
Yes a surgical strike and its not an impromptu overnight impulsive reaction.
Its main characteristics are:
1. Meticulous Planning
2. Maximum Damage
3. Very Accurate (Damaging the target while the surrounding suffers very little damage)
4. Sudden Shocking Surprise (without giving any time to the target to understand and save itself)
5. Minimum Collateral Damage
6. Conducted after diversionary tactics
7. Blocking any escape routes
In view of the above, demonetizing was precisely a surgical strike on black money . I will not go into more about this phenomenal death blow to Black Money, there are enough articles and analysis. I will focus on something which not many could see in this blitzkrieg. Modi's Great Rs. 2000 Trick.
To understand this trick, I wont take you too far back but 24th September 2016, Location Kozhikode, event BJP National Council's meeting. Modi was soft in speech and made an appeal to
Pakistani people not to get into fight with each other but fight poverty. There were mocking meme's of "Kahan Gayi 56 inch ki chaati". Indian express talked about strategic restraint.
3 Days later, *drumroll* surgical strike. Pakistani who thought nothing is gonna happen were caught completely off guard. They even had prepared their launch pads in final stages to launch terrorists in India as they seemed convinced Modi won't do anything.
Fast forward to 6th November, Social media, WhatsApp were filled with messages & images of new Rs. 2000 with NGC, notice carefully, no news about new Rs. 500 but only 2000 .. Why? Why only 2000 .. just coz 500 was already there? but isn't a news about a new 500 note exciting enough to be shared on WhatsApp .. why there was no news about it.
Now I will start unraveling the plan.
First. How easy do you believe is it to leak an image of new currency and that too in good detail without any action, without any reaction from govt.? Isn't it such a huge security blunder? Isn't that a matter of concern?
Govt acted so cool .. not even a news report that why such a thing happened.. Well coz it was done by RBI (Govt.) itself .. They leaked out the Image of Newly minted Rs. 2000 with the rumour of a NGC Nano GPS Chip on it to track it even 130 meters below ground. But why would they do that .. also why not put a news about 500 with a chip as well .. what did the govt. want to achieve with the tactic?
3 Days later, *drumroll* .. Surgical strike Conducted on Black Money (9th Nov) .. No one could have dreamt that 500 and 1000 Rupee Note would be stopped coz 2000 is a new denomination .. an Addition not a replacement. And news about new 500 never came in the market.
You wanted your target which is guilty and nervous (ready) to feel relaxed .. A whiff of new note of existing denomination would have send a chill down the spine so that is why its 2000 and not a Rs. 1000 note. Also with NGC, the culprit feels that okay so govt. is taking measures on new money, nothing is gonna happen to old as its not gonna get replaced (there is no existing 2000 Rupee note to replace.) Its a measure for future notes and my Rs. 500 and Rs. 2000 are safe.
The same is applicable to terrorists and their handlers as well. Who dont want to be tracked with 2000 rupee note, better start stocking 500 and 1000 Rupee notes now.
You may ask why even announce about the 2000 Note then? Recall the characteristics of Surgical Strike, the target knows that 30th September Deadline is over there could be action so it is always better to relax the target and then launch the offensive for maximum accurate damage. (How it would relax has been explained in previous paragraph if that thought crossed your mind).
This was primary objective. Secondary Objective, The culprit is relaxed about new note but aware that this new note with chip wont be easy to hoard (stock) so better remove Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes from market and convert from 100s to 500s and 1000s .. the culprit is in trap.
Tertiary and quite a valid important Objective:
86% of currency in circulation is in denomination of 500 and 1000. The valid white money crunch is going to crush the economy. Introduction of new money would be slow .. you need a high denomination to fill that void (not completely but to some extent). Don't expect too many 2000 rupee notes to be printed, they are just to tackle this emergency situation which govt. did expect to get created.
Now the next question is if its the objective why not leak 2000 image earlier enough for them to stock maximum. Remember, it is secondary objective and longer the time after a relaxing stroke, the more the chance that culprit becomes aware and take evasive measures.
So now .. Who all knew about stopping of existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes? No one except Modi Ji, Arun Jaitley and RBI Gov. I doubt if there is a fourth person who knew about it.
Why not others? How would it matter anyway .. its stopping the existing denomination .. don't need much preparation to remove the existing, what needs planning is introduction of new currency. So phasing out can be done at the drop of the hat and that is what was done without many people being informed about it.
So what about the new Rs. 500 Note? Did the banks know.. Ha Ha .. they did not?
I came across this article in the evening today and it confirmed my .
"They (Bank Heads) had been called to the RBI in the morning to receive a locked currency chest which they were told contained notes of the new 2,000 rupee denomination. They were under strict instructions not to open the chest or speak about it until later that night, according to the Mint newspaper.
It was when they opened it, as PM Modi was speaking, that they learnt about the new 500 rupee note, the paper added."
The banks were told that they should give more Rs. 100 notes and not Rs. 500 or Rs. 1000
Another line from the article above - "Last week, the RBI had ordered banks to issue more 100 rupee notes but no one seemed to have seen what was coming."
EDIT: RBI had issued a notification for banks to dispense Rs. 100 Notes through ATMs on 2nd November. Thanks to Mohan Kumar for sharing this link (https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=10674&Mode=0)
What other unintended but obvious objective did the Rs. 2000 Note trick achieve? Machines in Karachi worked overtime in last three days to print 1000 and 500 as Rs. 2000 would not be easy to print with the NGC chip (they thought would be real, the hoax worked), only to waste their resources and go WTF after the announcement.
"The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, Research andAnalysis Wing and other intelligence agencies had exposed Pakistan governmentacquiring ink and paper far in excess of requirement to print Pakistani currency."
The Rs. 2000 trick was a diversionary tactic as well as a trick for black money hoarders to hoard in 500 and 1000 currency notes since 2000 with NGC would not be easy to hoard.
Once you assimilate this one little plan in the whole scheme of things that Modi has tried to checkmate Black Money with, you would only say Modi Sir, You beyond awesome !!!
Bonus Analysis: NDTV Ban was never going to happen, it was just to keep the notorious channel busy in its own affairs trying to garner support while Modi planned execution.
In the absence of the above India would hav reached the Point of No Return like Iran a few years back..... 'Carry a BAG FULL of Currency to get a Loaf of Bread'.